Saturday, December 5, 2015

WEEK TWELVE NFL RESULTS

Below please find the 2015 week twelve NFL results based on the model we built last year. This model uses a learning algorithm fed by data from the last eleven weeks. To date, success rates this season are as follows: Week 2, 50%: Week 3, 62.5%: Week 4, 60%: Week 5, 64%; Week 6, 57%; Week 7, 50%; Week 8, 71%; Week 9, 53.8%; Week 10, 42.7%; Week 11, 57.1%, and for Week 12, 56.2%.

Still, the success rates this season have been relatively flat. Last year, we had two weeks in the 80th percentile, one in the 40's and two in the 30's. The average for correct predictions last year, however, was 61.6%. We are currently at 57.5% accurate for this season. Given that only one week this year dropped below 50%, it is difficult to say whether we are doing better this year or worse.

The % indicated after each game represents the crowd-sourced prediction from nfl.com as of Thursday afternoon of Week 12. The two digit decimal numbers following team names should be interpreted relative to each other for comparison to determine, in part, how close the game will be:

  • PHI @ DET
    • PHI (.46) over DET (.45) - Close Game
    • DET 45 over PHI 14 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Correct @ 60%
  • CAR @ DAL
    • CAR (.64) over DAL (.48)
    • CAR 33 over DAL 14 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Agrees @ 73% 
  • CHI @ GB
    • GB (.57) over CHI (.49)
    • CHI 17 over GB 13 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 95%
  • NO @ HOU
    • HOU (.56) over NO (.44)
    • HOU 24 over NO 6 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 63%
  • STL @ CIN
    • CIN (.55) over STL (.46)
    • CIN 31 over STL 7 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 93%
  • MIN @ ATL
    • ATL (.51) over MIN (.50)  - Close Game
    • MIN 20 over ATL 10 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Correct @ 65%
  • NYG @ WAS
    • NYG (.52) over WAS (.44)
    • WAS 20 over NYG 14 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 78%
  • TB @ IND
    • TB (.54) over IND (.49)
    • IND 25 over TB 12 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Correct @ 56%
  • BUF @ KC
    • KC (.66) over BUF (.49)
    • KC 30 over BUF 22 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 67%
  • OAK @ TEN
    • OAK (.45) over TEN (.39)
    • OAK 24 over TEN 21 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 85%
  • SD @ JAX
    • JAX (.49) over SD (.36)
    • SD 31 over JAX 25 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 77%
  • MIA @ NYJ
    • NYJ (.49) over MIA (.42)
    • NYJ 38 over MIA 20 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 79%
  • ARI @ SF
    • ARI (.57) over SF (.34)
    • ARI 19 over SF 13 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 96%
  • PIT @ SEA
    • SEA (.60) over PIT (.57) - Close Game
    • SEA 39 over PIT 30 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 54%
  • NE @ DEN
    • NE (.64) over DEN (.52)
    • DEN 30 over NE 24 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 73%
  • BAL @ CLE
    • BAL (.49) over CLE (.33)
    • BAL 33 over CLE 27 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 59%

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