Sunday, December 6, 2015

WEEK THIRTEEN NFL PREDICTIONS

Below please find the 2015 week thirteen NFL predictions based on the model we built last year. This model uses a learning algorithm fed by data from the last twelve weeks. To date, success rates this season are as follows: Week 2, 50%; Week 3, 62.5%; Week 4, 60%; Week 5, 64%; Week 6, 57%; Week 7, 50%; Week 8, 71%; Week 9, 53.8%; Week 10, 42.7%; Week 11, 57.1%; Week 12, 56.2%.

This week the crowd disagrees with the model on five games. (Due to delays, I didn't get to retrieve the crowd prediction for the GB @ DET game). The predictions look to me to be pretty intuitive this week, even with the crowd disagreement. We shall see.

So here goes - (The % indicated after each game represents the crowd-sourced prediction from nfl.com as of this afternoon. The two digit decimal numbers following team names should be interpreted relative to each other for comparison to determine, in part, how close the game will be.):

  • GB @ DET
    • GB (.53) over DET (.52) - Very Close Game
  • HOU @ BUF
    • HOU (.61) over BUF (.50)
    • Crowd Disagrees @ 52% 
  • SF @ CHI
    • CHI (.50) over SF (.36)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 92%
  • CIN @ CLE
    • CIN (.62) over CLE (.50)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 98%
  • BAL @ MIA
    • BAL (.50) over MIA (.41)
    • Crowd Disagrees @ 71%
  • SEA @ MIN
    • SEA (.59) over MIN (.55) - Close Game
    • Crowd Disagrees @ 64%
  • NYJ @ NYG
    • NYJ (.54) over NYG (.49)
    • Crowd Disagrees @ 57%
  • ARI @ STL
    • ARI (.58) over STL (.40)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 93%
  • ATL @ TB
    • TB (.48) over ATL (.47) - Very Close Game
    • Crowd Disagrees @ 51%
  • JAX @ TEN
    • JAX (.47) over TEN (.41)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 72%
  • KC @ OAK
    • KC (.63) over OAK (.47)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 66%
  • DEN @ SD
    • DEN (.53) over SD (.42)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 92%
  • PHI @ NE
    • NE (.59) over PHI (.41)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 95%
  • CAR @ NO
    • CAR (.65) over NO (.37)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 89%
  • IND @ PIT
    • PIT (.53) over IND (.53) - Very Close Game
    • Crowd Agrees @ 81%
  • DAL @ WAS
    • WAS (.48) over DAL (.43)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 81%

Games to watch: GB @ DET, SEA @ MIN, ATL @ TB, and IND @ PIT.

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