Thursday, December 31, 2015

WEEK SEVENTEEN NFL PREDICTIONS

Below please find the 2015 week seventeen NFL predictions based on the model we built last year. This model uses a learning algorithm fed by data from the last sixteen weeks. To date, success rates this season are as follows: Week 2, 50%; Week 3, 62.5%; Week 4, 60%; Week 5, 64%; Week 6, 57%; Week 7, 50%; Week 8, 71%; Week 9, 53.8%; Week 10, 42.7%; Week 11, 57.1%; Week 12, 56.2%; Week 13, 62.5%; Week 14, 56.2%; Week 15, 68.7%; Week 16, 50%; and this week ...

Note that the model agrees with the crowd on all games but one, the MIN @ GB game in which the model goes for MIN and the crowd for GB. This should be a good game to watch.

So here goes - (The % indicated after each game represents the crowd-sourced prediction from nfl.com as of this morning. The two digit decimal numbers following team names should be interpreted relative to each other for comparison to determine, in part, how close the game will be.):

  • NYJ @ BUF
    • NYJ (.58) over BUF (.54)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 78%
  • NE @ MIA
    • NE (.61) over MIA (.42)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 92% 
  • NO @ ATL
    • ATL (.48) over NO (.48) - Close Game
    • Crowd Agrees @ 78%
  • DET @ CHI
    • DET (.55) over CHI (.45)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 51%
  • PHI @ NYG
    • NYG (.47) over PHI (.45)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 78%
  • WAS @ DAL
    • WAS (.53) over DAL (.40)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 81%
  • TEN @ IND
    • IND (.46) over TEN (.34)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 91%
  • BAL @ CIN
    • CIN (.59) over BAL (.44)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 92%
  • PIT @ CLE
    • PIT (.57) over CLE (.39)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 95%
  • JAX @ HOU
    • HOU (.59) over JAX (.49)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 86%
  • OAK @ KC
    • KC (.61) over OAK (.48)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 84%
  • SD @ DEN
    • DEN (.55) over SD (.43)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 95%
  • TB @ CAR
    • CAR (.61) over TB (.47)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 93%
  • SEA @ ARI
    • ARI (.68) over SEA (.63)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 79%
  • STL @ SF
    • STL (.48) over SF (.37)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 87%
  • MIN @ GB
    • MIN (.56) over GB (.52)
    • Crowd Disagrees @ 61%
Games to watch: MIN @ GB and really all of them this week.

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