Saturday, December 12, 2015

WEEK FOURTEEN NFL RESULTS

Below please find the 2015 week fourteen NFL prediction results based on the model we built last year. This model uses a learning algorithm fed by data from the last thirteen weeks. To date, success rates this season are as follows: Week 2, 50%; Week 3, 62.5%; Week 4, 60%; Week 5, 64%; Week 6, 57%; Week 7, 50%; Week 8, 71.4%; Week 9, 53.8%; Week 10, 42.7%; Week 11, 57.1%; Week 12, 56.2%; Week 13, 62.5%, and this week 56.2%.

Note that the model agrees with the crowd in correct and incorrect calls except in the IND @ JAX game where the model was correct and the crowd incorrect. A closer inspection is necessary, but it looks like we are close to a heuristic that accounts for the way the crowd makes decisions.

Note also that while the overall predictive success of 2014 was averaging higher than 2015, the 2015 results are less erratic than the 2014 results. We are watching this closely. If the pattern persists in this matter, we will have done something successful with a slight tweak to last year's model that will be explained in a later post.


I expect that things will become a little more erratic during the last three weeks of the regular season as teams fight for a place in the playoffs.

So here goes - The % indicated after each game represents the crowd-sourced prediction from nfl.com as of Saturday morning. The two digit decimal numbers following team names should be interpreted relative to each other for comparison to determine, in part, how close the game will be:

  • MIN @ ARI
    • ARI (.66) over MIN (.45)
    • ARI 23 over MIN 20 - Prediction Correct
  • SEA @ BAL
    • SEA (.65) over BAL (.49)
    • SEA 35 over BAL 6 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Agrees @ 95% 
  • ATL @ CAR
    • CAR (.62) over ATL (.47)
    • CAR 38 over ATL 0 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Agrees @ 92%
  • WAS @ CHI
    • CHI (.48) over WAS (.48)
    • WAS 24 over CHI 21 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 71%
  • PIT @ CIN
    • CIN (.69) over PIT (.47)
    • PIT 33 over CIN 20 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 65%
  • SF @ CLE
    • SF (.41) over CLE (.31)
    • CLE 24 or SF 10 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 76%
  • IND @ JAX
    • JAX (.48) over IND (.44)
    • JAX 51 over IND 16 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 67%
  • SD @ KC
    • KC (.62) over SD (.35)
    • KC 10 over SD 3 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 94%
  • TEN @ NYJ
    • NYJ (.54) over TEN (.43)
    • NYJ 30 over TEN 8 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 93%
  • BUF @ PHI
    • BUF (.51) over PHI (.47)
    • PHI 23 over BUF 20 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 65%
  • DET @ STL
    • DET (.49) over STL (.34)
    • STL 21 over DET 14 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 66%
  • NO @ TB
    • TB (.50) over NO (.41)
    • NO 24 over TB 17 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 73%
  • OAK @ DEN
    • DEN (.62) over OAK (.45)
    • OAK 15 over DEN 12 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 92%
  • DAL @ GB
    • GB (.54) over DAL (.46)
    • GB 28 over DAL 7 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 92%
  • NE @ HOU
    • NE (.57) over HOU (.56) - Very Close Game ???
    • NE 27 over HOU 6 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 86%
  • NYG @ MIA
    • NYG (.49) over MIA (.45) - Close Game
    • NYG 31 over MIA 24 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 66%

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