Below please find the 2015 week fourteen NFL prediction results based on the model we built last year. This model uses a learning algorithm fed by data from the last thirteen weeks. To date, success rates this season are as follows: Week 2, 50%; Week 3, 62.5%; Week 4, 60%; Week 5, 64%; Week 6, 57%; Week 7, 50%; Week 8, 71.4%; Week 9, 53.8%; Week 10, 42.7%; Week 11, 57.1%; Week 12, 56.2%; Week 13, 62.5%, and this week 56.2%.
Note that the model agrees with the crowd in correct and incorrect calls except in the IND @ JAX game where the model was correct and the crowd incorrect. A closer inspection is necessary, but it looks like we are close to a heuristic that accounts for the way the crowd makes decisions.
I expect that things will become a little more erratic during the last three weeks of the regular season as teams fight for a place in the playoffs.
So here goes - The % indicated after each game represents the crowd-sourced prediction from nfl.com as of Saturday morning. The two digit decimal numbers following team names should be interpreted relative to each other for comparison to determine, in part, how close the game will be: