Saturday, December 12, 2015

WEEK FOURTEEN NFL PREDICTIONS

Below please find the 2015 week fourteen NFL predictions based on the model we built last year. This model uses a learning algorithm fed by data from the last thirteen weeks. To date, success rates this season are as follows: Week 2, 50%; Week 3, 62.5%; Week 4, 60%; Week 5, 64%; Week 6, 57%; Week 7, 50%; Week 8, 71%; Week 9, 53.8%; Week 10, 42.7%; Week 11, 57.1%; Week 12, 56.2%; Week 13, 62.5%.

Again, I'm sorry to say that I didn't get this early enough to get the crowd agreement on the Thursday night game. Otherwise, note that the model agrees with crowd except on one game, the IND @ JAX game, where the model weighs in favor of JAX. Note also that only one game is predicted to be "very close" by the model in which NE is predicted to win over HOU but only by a little. This strikes me a very counterintuitive. NE should win this easily, but we shall see. The model and crowd both predict a win for TB over NO. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see NO win this one.

So here goes - (The % indicated after each game represents the crowd-sourced prediction from nfl.com as of this morning. The two digit decimal numbers following team names should be interpreted relative to each other for comparison to determine, in part, how close the game will be.):

  • MIN @ ARI
    • ARI (.66) over MIN (.45)
  • SEA @ BAL
    • SEA (.65) over BAL (.49)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 95% 
  • ATL @ CAR
    • CAR (.62) over ATL (.47)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 92%
  • WAS @ CHI
    • CHI (.48) over WAS (.48)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 71%
  • PIT @ CIN
    • CIN (.69) over PIT (.47)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 65%
  • SF @ CLE
    • SF (.41) over CLE (.31)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 76%
  • IND @ JAX
    • JAX (.48) over IND (.44)
    • Crowd Disagrees @ 67%
  • SD @ KC
    • KC (.62) over SD (.35)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 94%
  • TEN @ NYJ
    • NYJ (.54) over TEN (.43)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 93%
  • BUF @ PHI
    • BUF (.51) over PHI (.47)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 65%
  • DET @ STL
    • DET(.49) over STL (.34)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 66%
  • NO @ TB
    • TB (.50) over NO (.41)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 73%
  • OAK @ DEN
    • DEN (.62) over OAK (.45)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 92%
  • DAL @ GB
    • GB (.54) over DAL (.46)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 92%
  • NE @ HOU
    • NE (.57) over HOU (.56) - Very Close Game ???
    • Crowd Agrees @ 86%
  • NYG @ MIA
    • NYG (.49) over MIA (.45) - Close Game
    • Crowd Agrees @ 66%

Games to watch: NE @ HOU, NYG @ MIA, NO @ TB (?)

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