Sunday, December 27, 2015

WEEK FIFTEEN NFL RESULTS

Below please find the 2015 week fifteen NFL results based on the model we built last year. This model uses a learning algorithm fed by data from the last fourteen weeks. To date, success rates this season are as follows: Week 2, 50%; Week 3, 62.5%; Week 4, 60%; Week 5, 64%; Week 6, 57%; Week 7, 50%; Week 8, 71%; Week 9, 53.8%; Week 10, 42.7%; Week 11, 57.1%; Week 12, 56.2%; Week 13, 62.5%; Week 14, 56.2%, and this Week, 68.7%.

Note that the crowd was also correct on 68.7%, though there was divergence on two games: the model as incorrect on the CHI @ MIN game where the crowd was correct, and the model was correct on the DET @ NO game where the crowd was incorrect. Importantly, the weekly model percentages for the season are still remaining pretty flat, which is a gain over last year, even though last year's overall accuracy was higher. See Week Fourteen NFL Results for more.

Due to the holiday, Week 16 Predictions and Results will not be posted. The percentage correct, however, will be posted with the Week 17 reports.

So here goes - The % indicated after each game represents the crowd-sourced prediction from nfl.com. The two digit decimal numbers following team names should be interpreted relative to each other for comparison to determine, in part, how close the game will be:

  • TB @ STL
    • TB (.47) over STL (.42)
    • STL 31 over TB 23 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 57%
  • NYJ @ DAL
    • NYJ (.60) over DAL (.39)
    • NYJ 19 over DAL 16 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 84% 
  • KC @ BAL
    • KC (.65) over BAL (.41)
    • KC 34 over BAL 14 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 91%
  • HOU @ IND
    • HOU (.46) over IND (.40)
    • HOU 16 over IND 10 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 59%
  • ATL @ JAX
    • JAX (.54) over ATL (.36)
    • ATL 23 over JAX 17 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 59%
  • CHI @ MIN
    • CHI (.47) over MIN (.47) - Very Close Game
    • MIN 38 over CHI 17 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Correct @ 91%
  • TEN @ NE
    • NE (.64) over TEN (.37)
    • NE 33 over TEN 16 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 98%
  • CAR @ NYG
    • CAR (.71) over NYG (.51)
    • CAR 38 over NYG 35 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 79%
  • BUF @ WAS
    • BUF (.50) over WAS (.49) - Very Close Game
    • WAS 35 over BUF 25 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 53%
  • GB @ OAK
    • GB (.60) over OAK (.48)
    • GB 30 over OAK 20 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 85%
  • CLE @ SEA
    • SEA (.69) over CLE (.41)
    • SEA 30 over CLE 13 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 98%
  • DEN @ PIT
    • PIT (.60) over DEN (.56) - Close Game
    • PIT 34 over DEN 27 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 65%
  • MIA @ SD
    • MIA (.44) over SD (.33)
    • SD 30 over MIA 14 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 70%
  • CIN @ SF
    • CIN (.60) over SF (.37)
    • CIN 24 over SF 14 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 87%
  • ARI @ PHI
    • ARI (.62) over PHI (.48)
    • ARI 40 over PHI 17 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 89%
  • DET @ NO
    • DET (.46) over NO (.46) - Very Close Game
    • DET 35 over NO 27 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 76%

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