Thursday, December 17, 2015

WEEK FIFTEEN NFL PREDICTIONS

Below please find the 2015 week fifteen NFL predictions based on the model we built last year. This model uses a learning algorithm fed by data from the last fourteen weeks. To date, success rates this season are as follows: Week 2, 50%; Week 3, 62.5%; Week 4, 60%; Week 5, 64%; Week 6, 57%; Week 7, 50%; Week 8, 71%; Week 9, 53.8%; Week 10, 42.7%; Week 11, 57.1%; Week 12, 56.2%; Week 13, 62.5%; Week 14, 56.2%.

Note that the crowd disagrees only on two predictions, CHI @ MIN and DET @ NO. In both cases, the model differentiates between the teams in the second decimal place and is rounded accordingly by the value in the third decimal place. My intuitions largely agree with the crowd on the CHI @ MIN game, though, while I think NO has a very good chance against DET, that game could go either way. More importantly, however, is the concurrence between the model and crowd predictions. (See Predicting the Winners vs. Predicting the Crowd posted back in September.)

I am uncertain about what to think of the DEN @ PIT game. The model predicts PIT, which seems a good call, but this will be a game worth watching, no doubt.

So here goes - (The % indicated after each game represents the crowd-sourced prediction from nfl.com as of this morning. The two digit decimal numbers following team names should be interpreted relative to each other for comparison to determine, in part, how close the game will be.):

  • TB @ STL
    • TB (.47) over STL (.42)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 57%
  • NYJ @ DAL
    • NYJ (.60) over DAL (.39)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 84% 
  • KC @ BAL
    • KC (.65) over BAL (.41)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 91%
  • HOU @ IND
    • HOU (.46) over IND (.40)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 59%
  • ATL @ JAX
    • JAX (.54) over ATL (.36)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 59%
  • CHI @ MIN
    • CHI (.47) over MIN (.47) - Very Close Game
    • Crowd Disagrees @ 91%
  • TEN @ NE
    • NE (.64) over TEN (.37)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 98%
  • CAR @ NYG
    • CAR (.71) over NYG (.51)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 79%
  • BUF @ WAS
    • BUF (.50) over WAS (.49) - Very Close Game
    • Crowd Agrees @ 53%
  • GB @ OAK
    • GB (.60) over OAK (.48)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 85%
  • CLE @ SEA
    • SEA (.69) over CLE (.41)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 98%
  • DEN @ PIT
    • PIT (.60) over DEN (.56) - Close Game
    • Crowd Agrees @ 65%
  • MIA @ SD
    • MIA (.44) over SD (.33)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 70%
  • CIN @ SF
    • CIN (.60) over SF (.37)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 87%
  • ARI @ PHI
    • ARI (.62) over PHI (.48)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 89%
  • DET @ NO
    • DET (.46) over NO (.46) - Very Close Game
    • Crowd Disagrees @ 76%

Games to watch: CHI @ MIN, BUF @ WAS, DEN @ PIT, DET @ NO.

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