Thursday, November 26, 2015

WEEK TWELVE NFL PREDICTIONS

Below please find the 2015 week twelve NFL predictions based on the model we built last year. This model uses a learning algorithm fed by data from the last eleven weeks. To date, success rates this season are as follows: Week 2, 50%: Week 3, 62.5%: Week 4, 60%: Week 5, 64%; Week 6, 57%; Week 7, 50%; Week 8, 71%; Week 9, 53.8%; Week 10, 42.7%; Week 11, 57.1%.

This week the crowd disagrees with the model on four games, where the model predicts PHI over DET, ATL over MIN, TB over IND, and BAL over CLE. I'm sympathetic with the crowd on the TB @ IND game, and I never know what to think about CLE, though it does seem to me that this should be an easy win for BAL. I'm not sure what the crowd is thinking here. My intuitions say that TEN will defeat OAK, even though both the model and the crowd say otherwise.

So here goes - (The % indicated after each game represents the crowd-sourced prediction from nfl.com as of this afternoon. The two digit decimal numbers following team names should be interpreted relative to each other for comparison to determine, in part, how close the game will be.):

  • PHI @ DET
    • PHI (.46) over DET (.45) - Close Game
    • Crowd Disagrees @ 60%
  • CAR @ DAL
    • CAR (.64) over DAL (.48)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 73% 
  • CHI @ GB
    • GB (.57) over CHI (.49)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 95%
  • NO @ HOU
    • HOU (.56) over NO (.44)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 63%
  • STL @ CIN
    • CIN (.55) over STL (.46)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 93%
  • MIN @ ATL
    • ATL (.51) over MIN (.50)  - Close Game
    • Crowd Disagrees @ 65%
  • NYG @ WAS
    • NYG (.52) over WAS (.44)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 78%
  • TB @ IND
    • TB (.54) over IND (.49)
    • Crowd Disagrees @ 56%
  • BUF @ KC
    • KC (.66) over BUF (.49)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 67%
  • OAK @ TEN
    • OAK (.45) over TEN (.39)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 85%
  • SD @ JAX
    • JAX (.49) over SD (.36)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 77%
  • MIA @ NYJ
    • NYJ (.49) over MIA (.42)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 79%
  • ARI @ SF
    • ARI (.57) over SF (.34)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 96%
  • PIT @ SEA
    • SEA (.60) over PIT (.57) - Close Game
    • Crowd Agrees @ 54%
  • NE @ DEN
    • NE (.64) over DEN (.52)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 73%
  • BAL @ CLE
    • BAL (.49) over CLE (.33)
    • Crowd Disagrees @ 59%

Games to watch: PHI @ DET, MIN @ ATL and PIT @ SEA.

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