Saturday, November 14, 2015

WEEK TEN NFL RESULTS

Below please find the 2015 week ten NFL predictions based on the model we built last year. This model uses a learning algorithm fed by data from the last nine weeks. To date, success rates this season are as follows: Week 2, 50%: Week 3, 62.5%: Week 4, 60%: Week 5, 64%; Week 6, 57%; Week 7, 50%; Week 8, 71%; Week 9, 53.8%; and this week 42.7%.

This is the first week to drop below 50%, and a few weeks like this are to be expected. Note that last year there were weeks at 31%, 38% and 42%. But this particular week was unusual on other fronts as well. The model was correct on 6 of the 14 games, but the crowd was correct on only 4 of them with a tie on a fifth, the DAL @ TB game. Furthermore, there was only one game in which the crowd was correct and the model incorrect, and this was the ARI @ SEA game.

Please keep in mind that we have yet to roll out any predictions based on the feature detection drive analysis network we are currently building. We are moving quickly along on that, though it's still difficult to say whether predictions for this year will happen this semester. At the latest, we will be re-predicting the games from this Fall next semester using new methods which are obviously needed.

(The % indicated after each game represents the crowd-sourced prediction from nfl.com as of this afternoon. The two digit decimal numbers following team names should be interpreted relative to each other for comparison to determine, in part, how close the game will be.)

  • BUF @ NYJ
    • BUF (.53) over NYJ (.53) - Very Close Game
    • BUF 22 over NYJ 17 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 72%
  • DET @ GB
    • GB (.52) over DET (.35) - Easy Win for GB
    • DET 18 over GB 16 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 98% 
  • DAL @ TB
    • DAL (.44) over TB (.44) - Very Close Game
    • TB 10 over DAL 6 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Split 50%-50%
  • CAR @ TEN
    • CAR (.58) over TEN (.42) - Easy Win for CAR
    • CAR 27 over TEN 10 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 94%
  • CHI @ STL 
    • STL (.55) over CHI (.44) - Easy Win for STL
    • CHI 37 over STL 13 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 87%
  • NO @ WAS
    • NO (.48) over WAS (.41)
    • WAS 47 over NO 14 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 84%
  • MIA @ PHI
    • PHI (.55) over MIA (.41) - Easy Win for PHI
    • MIA 20 over PHI 19 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 78%
  • CLE @ PIT
    • PIT (.50) over CLE (.36) - Easy Win for PIT
    • PIT 30 over CLE 9 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 91%
  • JAX @ BAL 
    • BAL (.48) over JAX (.44)
    • JAX 22 over BAL 20 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 72%
  • MIN @ OAK
    • MIN (.54) over OAK (.51)
    • MIN 30 over OAK 14 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 51%
  • NE @ NYG
    • NE (.70) over NYG (.53) - Easy Win for NE
    • NE 27 over NYG 26 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 83%
  • KC @ DEN
    • KC (.58) over DEN (.58) - Very Close Game
    • KC 29 over DEN 13 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 93%
  • ARI @ SEA
    • SEA (.60) over ARI (.60) - Very Close Game
    • ARI 39 over SEA 32 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Correct @ 68%
  • HOU @ CIN
    • CIN (.65) over HOU (.55) - Easy Win for CIN
    • HOU 10 over CIN 6 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 96%

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