Thursday, November 12, 2015

WEEK TEN NFL PREDICTIONS

Below please find the 2015 week ten NFL predictions based on the model we built last year. This model uses a learning algorithm fed by data from the last nine weeks. To date, success rates this season are as follows: Week 2, 50%: Week 3, 62.5%: Week 4, 60%: Week 5, 64%; Week 6, 57%; Week 7, 50%; Week 8, 71%; Week 9, 53.8%.

Note that this week the model agreed with the crowd in 10 of the 14 games as opposed to 10 of the 13 from last week. On the very close prediction of the DAL @ TB game the crowd split 50/50.

Contrary to the numbers, my intuitions strongly disagree with the predictions below on the KC @ DEN game. I'm not sure how the model could predict KC unless there's something wrong with the math. As it stands, the game is predicted to be very close. Maybe I'll be surprised and be correct on this one.

So here goes - (The % indicated after each game represents the crowd-sourced prediction from nfl.com as of this afternoon. The two digit decimal numbers following team names should be interpreted relative to each other for comparison to determine, in part, how close the game will be.):

  • BUF @ NYJ
    • BUF (.53) over NYJ (.53) - Very Close Game
    • Crowd Disagrees @ 72%
  • DET @ GB
    • GB (.52) over DET (.35) - Easy Win for GB
    • Crowd Agrees @ 98% 
  • DAL @ TB
    • DAL (.44) over TB (.44) - Very Close Game
    • Crowd Split 50%-50%
  • CAR @ TEN
    • CAR (.58) over TEN (.42) - Easy Win for CAR
    • Crowd Agrees @ 94%
  • CHI @ STL 
    • STL (.55) over CHI (.44) - Easy Win for STL
    • Crowd Agrees @ 87%
  • NO @ WAS
    • NO (.48) over WAS (.41)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 84%
  • MIA @ PHI
    • PHI (.55) over MIA (.41) - Easy Win for PHI
    • Crowd Agrees @ 78%
  • CLE @ PIT
    • PIT (.50) over CLE (.36) - Easy Win for PIT
    • Crowd Agrees @ 91%
  • JAX @ BAL 
    • BAL (.48) over JAX (.44)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 72%
  • MIN @ OAK
    • MIN (.54) over OAK (.51)
    • Crowd Disagrees @ 51%
  • NE @ NYG
    • NE (.70) over NYG (.53) - Easy Win for NE
    • Crowd Agrees @ 83%
  • KC @ DEN
    • KC (.58) over DEN (.58) - Very Close Game
    • Crowd Disagrees @ 93%
  • ARI @ SEA
    • SEA (.60) over ARI (.60) - Very Close Game
    • Crowd Disagrees @ 68%
  • HOU @ CIN
    • CIN (.65) over HOU (.55) - Easy Win for CIN
    • Crowd Agrees @ 96%

Games to watch: BUF @ NYJ, DAL @ TB, KC @ DEN, and ARI @ SEA.

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