Tuesday, November 10, 2015

WEEK NINE NFL RESULTS

Below please find the 2015 week nine NFL results based on the model we built last year. This model uses a learning algorithm fed by data from the last eight weeks. To date, success rates this season are as follows: Week 2, 50%: Week 3, 62.5%: Week 4, 60%: Week 5, 64%; Week 6, 57%; Week 7, 50%; Week 8, 71%. This week the model fell to 53.8%. The crowd hit the same percent, (assuming that the record below is right about the crowd prediction on the STL @ MIN game. I seem to remember that the crown picked MIN, but I don't have a way to check that now.)

Of the six games of thirteen missed by the model, one had a six point spread, four had a three point spread, and one had a one point spread. Any of these could have gone the other way, but they didn't, though this makes it clear that it was an interesting week for football.

The two games where my intuitions diverged from the model (the STL @ MIN game and the OAK @ PIT game) were both right according to my intuitions, but not the model. This raises some cognitive science questions about intuition. What am I seeing that the model is missing? It's hard to say.

  • CLE @ CIN
    • CIN (.62) over CLE (.39) - Easy Win for CIN
    • CIN 31 over CLE 10 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 91%
  • MIA @ BUF
    • BUF (.50) over MIA (.46) - Close Game
    • BUF 33 over MIA 17 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 58%
  • GB @ CAR
    • CAR (.60) over GB (.56) - Very Close Game
    • CAR 37 over GB 29 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 77%
  • STL @ MIN
    • STL (.61) over MIN (.57) - Close Game
    • MIN 21 over STL 18 - Prediction Incorrect (3 pt spread)
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 62%
  • WAS @ NE
    • NE (.71) over WAS (.48) - Easy Win for NE
    • NE 27 over WAS 10 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 97%
  • TEN @ NO
    • NO (.50) over TEN (.37) - Easy Win for NO
    • TEN 34 over NO 28 - Prediction Incorrect (6 pt spread)
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 97%
  • JAX @ NYJ
    • NYJ (.53) over JAX (.45) - Easy Win for NYJ
    • NYJ 28 over JAX 23 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 89%
  • OAK @ PIT
    • OAK (.54) over PIT (.49) - Close Game
    • PIT 38 over OAK 35 - Prediction Incorrect (3 pt spread)
    • Crowd Correct @ 68%
  • ATL @ SF
    • ATL (.53) over SF (.29) - Easy Win for ATL
    • SF 17 over ATL 16 - Prediction Incorrect (1 pt spread)
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 94%
  • NYG @ TB
    • NYG (.50) over TB (.49) - Very Close Game
    • NYG 32 over TB 18 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 79%
  • DEN @ IND
    • DEN (.65) over IND (.46) - Easy Win for DEN
    • IND 27 over DEN 24 - Prediction Incorrect (3 pt spread)
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 90%
  • PHI @ DAL
    • PHI (.57) over DAL (.44) - Easy Win for PHI
    • PHI 33 over DAL 27 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 66%
  • CHI @ SD
    • SD (.45) over CHI (.43) - Very Close Game
    • CHI 22 over SD 19 - Prediction Incorrect (3 pt spread)
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 81%

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