Thursday, November 5, 2015

WEEK NINE NFL PREDICTIONS

Below please find the 2015 week nine NFL predictions based on the model we built last year. This model uses a learning algorithm fed by data from the last eight weeks. To date, success rates this season are as follows: Week 2, 50%: Week 3, 62.5%: Week 4, 60%: Week 5, 64%; Week 6, 57%; Week 7, 50%; Week 8, 71%.

Note that this week the model agreed with the crowd in 10 of the 13 games as opposed to 12 of the 14 from last week. The three games of contention are the GB @ CAR game, the STL @ MIN game, and the OAK @ PIT game. 

Contrary to the numbers, my intuitions disagree with the predictions below on the STL @ MIN game and the OAK @ PIT game. My guess is that MIN and PIT will be the winners of these games.

So here goes - (The % indicated after each game represents the crowd-sourced prediction from nfl.com as of this afternoon. The two digit decimal numbers following team names should be interpreted relative to each other for comparison to determine, in part, how close the game will be.):

  • CLE @ CIN
    • CIN (.62) over CLE (.39) - Easy Win for CIN
    • CIN 31 over CLE 10 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 91%
  • MIA @ BUF
    • BUF (.50) over MIA (.46) - Close Game
    • BUF 33 over MIA 17 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 58%
  • GB @ CAR
    • CAR (.60) over GB (.56) - Very Close Game
    • CAR 37 over GB 29 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 77%
  • STL @ MIN
    • STL (.61) over MIN (.57) - Close Game
    • MIN 21 over STL 18 - Prediction Incorrect (3 pt spread)
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 62%
  • WAS @ NE
    • NE (.71) over WAS (.48) - Easy Win for NE
    • NE 27 over WAS 10 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 97%
  • TEN @ NO
    • NO (.50) over TEN (.37) - Easy Win for NO
    • TEN 34 over NO 28 - Prediction Incorrect (6 pt spread)
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 97%
  • JAX @ NYJ
    • NYJ (.53) over JAX (.45) - Easy Win for NYJ
    • NYJ 28 over JAX 23 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 89%
  • OAK @ PIT
    • OAK (.54) over PIT (.49) - Close Game
    • PIT 38 over OAK 35 - Prediction Incorrect (3 pt spread)
    • Crowd Correct @ 68%
  • ATL @ SF
    • ATL (.53) over SF (.29) - Easy Win for ATL
    • SF 17 over ATL 16 - Prediction Incorrect (1 pt spread)
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 94%
  • NYG @ TB
    • NYG (.50) over TB (.49) - Very Close Game
    • NYG 32 over TB 18 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 79%
  • DEN @ IND
    • DEN (.65) over IND (.46) - Easy Win for DEN
    • IND 27 over DEN 24 - Prediction Incorrect (3 pt spread)
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 90%
  • PHI @ DAL
    • PHI (.57) over DAL (.44) - Easy Win for PHI
    • PHI 33 over DAL 27 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 66%
  • CHI @ SD
    • SD (.45) over CHI (.43) - Very Close Game
    • CHI 22 over SD 19 - Prediction Incorrect (3 pt spread)
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 81%

Games to watch: GB @ CAR, NYG @ TB, and CHI @ SD.

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