Thursday, November 19, 2015

WEEK ELEVEN NFL RESULTS

Below please find the 2015 week eleven NFL prediction results based on the model we built last year. This model uses a learning algorithm fed by data from the last ten weeks. To date, success rates this season are as follows: Week 2, 50%: Week 3, 62.5%: Week 4, 60%: Week 5, 64%; Week 6, 57%; Week 7, 50%; Week 8, 71%; Week 9, 53.8%; Week 10, 42.7%; and this week 57.1%. 

Last year, the Week 11 predictions were at 42%, dropping from 77% the week before.

This week the crowd did slightly better than the model at 64%. Details appear below.

The average power ratings took an interesting turn after the last two weeks. KC is now rated first after a four game winning streak, followed by CAR (2), NE (3), SEA (4), PIT (5), ARI (6), GB (7), HOU (8), CIN (9) and TB (10). 

The % indicated after each game represents the crowd-sourced prediction from nfl.com as of last Thursday afternoon. The two digit decimal numbers following team names should be interpreted relative to each other for comparison to determine, in part, how close the game will be.

  • TEN @ JAX
    • JAX (.46) over TEN (.38)
    • JAX 19 over TEN 13 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 77%
  • OAK @ DET
    • OAK (.45) over DET (.40)
    • DET 18 over OAK 13 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 79% 
  • IND @ ATL
    • ATL (.52) over IND (.48)
    • IND 24 over ATL 21 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Correct @ 81%
  • STL @ BAL
    • BAL (.47) over STL (.46) - Close Game
    • BAL 16 over STL 13 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 73%
  • TB @ PHI
    • PHI (.53) over TB (.49)
    • TB 45 over PHI 17 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 73%
  • DEN @ CHI
    • CHI (.52) over DEN (.51) - Close Game
    • DEN 17 over CHI 15 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Correct @ 61%
  • NYJ @ HOU
    • HOU (.56) over NYJ (.51)
    • HOU 24 over NTJ 17 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 71%
  • WAS @ CAR
    • CAR (.62) over WAS (.49)
    • CAR 44 over WAS 16 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 92%
  • DAL @ MIA
    • MIA (.44) over DAL (.42)
    • DAL 24 over MIA 14 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 59%
  • KC @ SD
    • KC (.59) over SD (.45)
    • KC 33 over SD 3 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 74%
  • GB @ MIN
    • MIN (.59) over GB (.51) - Close Game
    • GB 30 over MIN 13 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Correct @ 51%
  • SF @ SEA
    • SEA (.56) over SF (.36)
    • SAE 29 over SF 13 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 94%
  • CIN @ ARI
    • ARI (.58) over CIN (.57) - Close Game
    • ARI 34 over CIN - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 70%
  • BUF @ NE
    • NE (.66) over BUF (.53)
    • NE 20 over BUF 13 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 88%

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