Tuesday, November 3, 2015

WEEK EIGHT NFL RESULTS

Below please find the CSML prediction results for week eight of the 2015 NFL season. This model uses a learning algorithm fed by data from the last seven weeks. 

This past week, the model predicted the outcome of 10 of the 14 games correctly for an accuracy of 71.4%. The crowd, on the other hand, was correct on 9 of the 14 games for an accuracy of 64.2%.

Four of the same games were incorrect for both the model and the crowd. The one that diverged was the SD @ BAL game which was close and could have gone either way.

As a caveat, it is worth pointing out again, that these predictions were based on last year's method, which uses a variety of averaging and weighting procedures based on game scores. The model we are currently building is a multi-layered, feature detection network that uses AI rather than statistical procedures. Time will tell if it does better than this method. Please see my recent post regarding the "Predicting the NFL" Update for more.

  • MIA @ NE
    • NE (.63) over MIA (.55) - Easy win for NE
    • NE 36 over MIA 7 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 89%
  • DET @ KC
    • KC (.51) over DET (.43) - Close game
    • KC 45 over DET 10 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 71%
  • TB @ ATL
    • ATL (.57) over TB (.45) - Easy win for ATL
    • TB 23 over ATL 20 - Prediction Incorrect by 4 Points
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 96%
  • ARI @ CLE
    • ARI (.60) over CLE (.41) - Easy win for ARI
    • ARI 34 over CLE 20 - Prediction correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 96%
  • SF @ STL
    • STL (.51) over SF (.35) - Easy win for STL
    • STL 27 over SF 6 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 90%
  • NYG @ NO
    • NYG (.52) over NO (.51) - Very close game
    • NO 52 over NYG 49 - Prediction Incorrect  by 4 Points
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 59%
  • MIN @ CHI
    • MIN (.56) over CHI (.39) - Easy win for MIN
    • MIN 23 over CHI 20 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 82%
  • SD @ BAL
    • BAL (.47) over SD (.46) - Very close game
    • BAL 29 over SD 26 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 59%
  • CIN @ PIT
    • CIN (.59) over PIT (.54) - Close game
    • CIN 16 over PIT 10 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 68%
  • TEN @ HOU
    • HOU (.47) over TEN (.41) - Close game
    • HOU 20 over TEN 6 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 71%
  • NYJ @ OAK
    • NYJ (.56) over OAK (.48) - Easy win for NYJ
    • OAK 34 over NYJ 20 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 72%
  • SEA @ DAL
    • SEA (.66) over DAL (.41) - Easy win for SEA
    • SEA 13 over DAL 12 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 84%
  • GB @ DEN
    • GB (.65) over DEN (.57) - Interesting game
    • DEN 29 over GB 10 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 75%
  • IND @ CAR
    • CAR (.60) over IND (.48) - Easy win for CAR
    • CAR 29 over IND 26 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 88%

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