Thursday, November 19, 2015

WEEK ELEVEN NFL PREDICTIONS

Below please find the 2015 week eleven NFL predictions based on the model we built last year. This model uses a learning algorithm fed by data from the last ten weeks. To date, success rates this season are as follows: Week 2, 50%: Week 3, 62.5%: Week 4, 60%: Week 5, 64%; Week 6, 57%; Week 7, 50%; Week 8, 71%; Week 9, 53.8%; Week 10, 42.7%.

My intuitions are a bit uncomfortable with the CHI over DEN prediction. But they were last week, when the model predicted KC over DEN. So, maybe the model is detecting something I'm not. Also, I'll be surprised if the Texans really do defeat the Jets, but after their victory over the Bengals last week, it's really hard to say.

So here goes - (The % indicated after each game represents the crowd-sourced prediction from nfl.com as of this afternoon. The two digit decimal numbers following team names should be interpreted relative to each other for comparison to determine, in part, how close the game will be.):

  • TEN @ JAX
    • JAX (.46) over TEN (.38)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 77%
  • OAK @ DET
    • OAK (.45) over DET (.40)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 79% 
  • IND @ ATL
    • ATL (.52) over IND (.48)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 81%
  • STL @ BAL
    • BAL (.47) over STL (.46) - Close Game
    • Crowd Disagrees @ 73%
  • TB @ PHI
    • PHI (.53) over TB (.49)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 73%
  • DEN @ CHI
    • CHI (.52) over DEN (.51) - Close Game
    • Crowd Disagrees @ 61%
  • NYJ @ HOU
    • HOU (.56) over NYJ (.51)
    • Crowd Disagrees @ 71%
  • WAS @ CAR
    • CAR (.62) over WAS (.49)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 92%
  • DAL @ MIA
    • MIA (.44) over DAL (.42)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 59%
  • KC @ SD
    • KC (.59) over SD (.45)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 74%
  • GB @ MIN
    • MIN (.59) over GB (.51) - Close Game
    • Crowd Disagrees @ 51%
  • SF @ SEA
    • SEA (.56) over SF (.36)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 94%
  • CIN @ ARI
    • ARI (.58) over CIN (.57) - Close Game
    • Crowd Agrees @ 70%
  • BUF @ NE
    • NE (.66) over BUF (.53)
    • Crowd Agrees @ 88%

Games to watch: GB @ MIN, CIN @ ARI, DEN @ CHI, and STL @ BAL.

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