Wednesday, October 21, 2015

WEEK SIX NFL RESULTS

Below please find the 2015 week six NFL results based on the model we built last year. This model uses a learning algorithm fed by data from just the last five weeks. To date, success rates this season are as follows: Week 2 - 50%, Week 3 - 62.5%, Week 4 - 60%, Week 5 - 64%, and then this week - 57%.

Last year, week six reached 86%, and so we were hopeful that this past week's accuracy would increase. It did not. Let's hope for better on Week 7.








  • ATL @ NO - easy win for ATL
    • M1 - ATL (.58) over NO (.42)
    • M2 - ATL (.60) over NO (.40)
    • M3 - ATL (.64) over NO (.45)
      • Overall Prediction: ATL over NO 
      • NO 31 over ATL 21 - Prediction Incorrect
      • Crowd Incorrect @ 88%
  • CIN @ BUF - ???
    • M1 - CIN (.60) over BUF (.53)
    • M2 - CIN (.57) over BUF (.50)
    • M3 - CIN (.61) over BUF (.54)
      • Overall Prediction: CIN over BUF
      • CIN 34 over BUF 21 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Correct @ 81%
  • DEN @ CLE - easy win for DEN
    • M1 DEN (.59) over CLE (.47)
    • M2 DEN (.60) over CLE (.49)
    • M3 DEN (.64) over CLE (.52)
      • Overall Prediction: DEN over CLE
      • DEN 26 over CLE 23 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Correct @ 91%
  • CHI @ DET - close game
    • M1 - DET (.39) over CHI (.36)
    • M2 - CHI (.43) over DET (.35)
    • M3 - CHI (.41) over DET (.38)
      • Overall Prediction: CHI over DET
      • DET 37 over CHI 34 - Prediction Incorrect
      • Crowd Incorrect @ 53%
  • HOU @ JAX - close game
    • M1 - HOU (.45) over JAX (.40)
    • M2 - HOU (.43) over JAX (.42)
    • M3 - HOU (.47) over JAX (.44)
      • Overall Prediction: HOU over JAX 
      • HOU 31 over JAX 20 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Correct @ 54%
  • KC @ MIN - close game
    • M1 - MIN (.48) over KC (.46)
    • M2 - MIN (.50) over KC (.45)
    • M3 - MIN (.53) over KC (.47)
      • Overall Prediction: MIN over KC 
      • MIN 16 over KC 10 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Correct @ 82%
  • WAS @ NYJ - easy win for NYJ
    • M1 - NYJ (.64) over WAS (.49)
    • M2 - NYJ (.62) over WAS (.46)
    • M3 - NYJ (.60) over WAS (.52)
      • Overall Prediction: NYJ over WAS
      • NYJ 34 over WAS 20 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Correct @ 89%
  • ARI @ PIT - easy win for ARI
    • M1 - ARI (.67) over PIT (.56)
    • M2 - ARI (.66) over PIT (.55)
    • M3 - ARI (.72) over PIT (.60)
      • Overall Prediction: ARI over PIT
      • PIT 25 to ARI 13 - Prediction Incorrect
      • Crowd Incorrect @ 81%
  • MIA @ TEN - ???
    • M1 - TEN (.51) over MIA (.42)
    • M2 - TEN (.50) over MIA (.37)
    • M3 - TEN (.48) over MIA (.42)
      • Overall Prediction: TEN over MIA
      • MIA 38 over TEN 10 - Prediction Incorrect
      • Crowd Incorrect @ 65%
  • CAR @ SEA - close game
    • M1 - CAR (.61) over SEA (.58)
    • M2 - CAR (.61) over SEA (.56)
    • M3 - SEA (.63) over CAR (.61)
      • Overall Prediction: CAR over SEA 
      • CAR 27 over SEA 23 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Incorrect @ 65%
  • SD @ GB - easy win for GB
    • M1 - GB (.67) over SD (.45)
    • M2 - GB (.71) over SD (.46)
    • M3 - GB (.75) over SD (.48)
      • Overall Prediction: GB over SD 
      • GB 27 over SD 20 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Correct @ 96%
  • BAL @ SF - ???
    • M1 - BAL (.47) over SF (.38)
    • M2 - BAL (.48) over SF (.36)
    • M3 - BAL (.52) over SF (.35)
      • Overall Prediction: BAL over SF
      • SF 25 over BAL 20 - Prediction Incorrect
      • Crowd Incorrect @ 62%
  • NE @ IND - easy win for NE
    • M1 - NE (.68) over IND (.45)
    • M2 - NE (.74) over IND (.52)
    • M3 - NE (.73) over IND (.53)
      • Overall Prediction: NE over IND
      • NE 34 over IND 27 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Correct @ 90%
  • NYG @ PHI - close game
    • M1 - NYG (.56) over PHI (.51)
    • M2 - PHI (.59) over NYG (.58)
    • M3 - NYG (.62) over PHI (.59)
      • Overall Prediction: NYG over PHI 
      • PHI 27 over NYG 07 - Prediction Incorrect
      • Crowd Incorrect @ 56%

    Progress is being made on the pattern matching drive analysis network, and early testing suggests that it will boost our accuracy. I will post an update on where the CSML is in developing that soon.

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