Thursday, October 15, 2015

WEEK SIX NFL PREDICTIONS

Below please find the 2015 week six NFL predictions based on the model we built last year. This model uses a learning algorithm fed by data from just the last five weeks. To date, success rates this season are as follows: Week 2, 50%: Week 3, 62.5%: Week 4, 60%: Week 5, 64%.

We have slightly altered the 2014 model in various ways to yield three sets of predictions. Model 1 (M1) is the procedure from last year and is based on normal averaging. So far, this has been the most accurate model. M2 is based on moving averages, and M3 is based on weighted percentages (thereby allowing games later in the season to count more than earlier games.)

Note that the model agreed with the crowd in 12 of the 14 games for an accuracy rating of 86% in predicting what the crowd would say.

So here goes - (The % indicated after each game represents the crowd-sourced prediction from nfl.com as of this afternoon. The two digit decimal numbers following team names should be interpreted relative to each other for comparison of the models and to determine, in part, how close the game will be.):

  • ATL @ NO - easy win for ATL
    • M1 - ATL (.58) over NO (.42)
    • M2 - ATL (.60) over NO (.40)
    • M3 - ATL (.64) over NO (.45)
      • Overall Prediction: ATL over NO 
      • NO 31 over ATL 21 - Prediction Incorrect
      • Crowd Incorrect @ 88%
  • CIN @ BUF - ???
    • M1 - CIN (.60) over BUF (.53)
    • M2 - CIN (.57) over BUF (.50)
    • M3 - CIN (.61) over BUF (.54)
      • Overall Prediction: CIN over BUF
      • CIN 34 over BUF 21 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Correct @ 81%
  • DEN @ CLE - easy win for DEN
    • M1 DEN (.59) over CLE (.47)
    • M2 DEN (.60) over CLE (.49)
    • M3 DEN (.64) over CLE (.52)
      • Overall Prediction: DEN over CLE
      • DEN 26 over CLE 23 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Correct @ 91%
  • CHI @ DET - close game
    • M1 - DET (.39) over CHI (.36)
    • M2 - CHI (.43) over DET (.35)
    • M3 - CHI (.41) over DET (.38)
      • Overall Prediction: CHI over DET
      • DET 37 over CHI 34 - Prediction Incorrect
      • Crowd Incorrect @ 53%
  • HOU @ JAX - close game
    • M1 - HOU (.45) over JAX (.40)
    • M2 - HOU (.43) over JAX (.42)
    • M3 - HOU (.47) over JAX (.44)
      • Overall Prediction: HOU over JAX 
      • HOU 31 over JAX 20 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Correct @ 54%
  • KC @ MIN - close game
    • M1 - MIN (.48) over KC (.46)
    • M2 - MIN (.50) over KC (.45)
    • M3 - MIN (.53) over KC (.47)
      • Overall Prediction: MIN over KC 
      • MIN 16 over KC 10 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Correct @ 82%
  • WAS @ NYJ - easy win for NYJ
    • M1 - NYJ (.64) over WAS (.49)
    • M2 - NYJ (.62) over WAS (.46)
    • M3 - NYJ (.60) over WAS (.52)
      • Overall Prediction: NYJ over WAS
      • NYJ 34 over WAS 20 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Correct @ 89%
  • ARI @ PIT - easy win for ARI
    • M1 - ARI (.67) over PIT (.56)
    • M2 - ARI (.66) over PIT (.55)
    • M3 - ARI (.72) over PIT (.60)
      • Overall Prediction: ARI over PIT
      • PIT 25 to ARI 13 - Prediction Incorrect
      • Crowd Incorrect @ 81%
  • MIA @ TEN - ???
    • M1 - TEN (.51) over MIA (.42)
    • M2 - TEN (.50) over MIA (.37)
    • M3 - TEN (.48) over MIA (.42)
      • Overall Prediction: TEN over MIA
      • MIA 38 over TEN 10 - Prediction Incorrect
      • Crowd Incorrect @ 65%
  • CAR @ SEA - close game
    • M1 - CAR (.61) over SEA (.58)
    • M2 - CAR (.61) over SEA (.56)
    • M3 - SEA (.63) over CAR (.61)
      • Overall Prediction: CAR over SEA 
      • CAR 27 over SEA 23 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Incorrect @ 65%
  • SD @ GB - easy win for GB
    • M1 - GB (.67) over SD (.45)
    • M2 - GB (.71) over SD (.46)
    • M3 - GB (.75) over SD (.48)
      • Overall Prediction: GB over SD 
      • GB 27 over SD 20 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Correct @ 96%
  • BAL @ SF - ???
    • M1 - BAL (.47) over SF (.38)
    • M2 - BAL (.48) over SF (.36)
    • M3 - BAL (.52) over SF (.35)
      • Overall Prediction: BAL over SF
      • SF 25 over BAL 20 - Prediction Incorrect
      • Crowd Incorrect @ 62%
  • NE @ IND - easy win for NE
    • M1 - NE (.68) over IND (.45)
    • M2 - NE (.74) over IND (.52)
    • M3 - NE (.73) over IND (.53)
      • Overall Prediction: NE over IND
      • NE 34 over IND 27 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Correct @ 90%
  • NYG @ PHI - close game
    • M1 - NYG (.56) over PHI (.51)
    • M2 - PHI (.59) over NYG (.58)
    • M3 - NYG (.62) over PHI (.59)
      • Overall Prediction: NYG over PHI 
      • PHI 27 over NYG 07 - Prediction Incorrect
      • Crowd Incorrect @ 56%

Games to watch: NYG @ PHI and CAR @ SEA first, and then KC @ MIN, HOU @ JAX, and CHI @ DET.

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