Thursday, October 22, 2015

WEEK SEVEN NFL PREDICTIONS

Below please find the 2015 week seven NFL predictions based on the model we built last year. This model uses a learning algorithm fed by data from the last six weeks. To date, success rates this season are as follows: Week 2, 50%: Week 3, 62.5%: Week 4, 60%: Week 5, 64%; Week 6, 57%.

We have slightly altered the 2014 model in various ways to yield three sets of predictions. Model 1 (M1) is the procedure from last year and is based on normal averaging. So far, this has been the most accurate model. M2 is based on moving averages, and M3 is based on weighted percentages (thereby allowing games later in the season to count more than earlier games.)

Note that the model agreed with the crowd in only 9 of the 14 games as opposed to 12 of the 14 from last week.

Bottom line - I'm not feeling very confident in the predictions below. However, our new model is developing well. Click here to learn more.

So here goes - (The % indicated after each game represents the crowd-sourced prediction from nfl.com as of this afternoon. The two digit decimal numbers following team names should be interpreted relative to each other for comparison of the models and to determine, in part, how close the game will be.):

  • SEA @ SF - Easy win for SEA
    • M1 - SEA (.56) over SF (.41)
    • M2 - SEA (.51) over SF (.46)
    • M3 - SEA (.55) over SF (.39)
      • Overall Prediction: SEA over SF
      • SEA 20 over SF 3 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Correct @ 81%
  • BUF @ JAX - ???
    • M1 - BUF (.51) over JAX (.40)
    • M2 - BUF (.44) over JAX (.41)
    • M3 - BUF (.47) over JAX (.40)
      • Overall Prediction: BUF over JAX
      • JAX 34 over BUF 31 - Prediction Incorrect
      • Crowd Incorrect @ 88%
  • MIN @ DET - Close game
    • M1 DET (.58) over MIN (.51)
    • M2 DET (.56) over MIN (.56)
    • M3 MIN (.59) over DET (.58)
      • Overall Prediction: DET over MIN
      • MIN 28 over DET 19 - Prediction Incorrect
      • Crowd Correct @ 67%
  • NO @ IND - Close game
    • M1 - NO (.45) over IND (.45)
    • M2 - NO (.50) over IND (.48)
    • M3 - IND (.48) over NO (.47)
      • Overall Prediction: NO over IND
      • NO 27 over IND 21 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Incorrect @ 79%
  • PIT @ KC - Easy win for PIT
    • M1 - PIT (.58) over KC (.45)
    • M2 - PIT (.60) over KC (.42)
    • M3 - PIT (.59) over KC (.42)
      • Overall Prediction: PIT over KC
      • KC 23 over PIT 13 - Prediction Incorrect
      • Crowd Incorrect @ 86%
  • HOU @ MIA - Close game
    • M1 - MIA (.49) over HOU (.48)
    • M2 - MIA (.58) over HOU (.52)
    • M3 - MIA (.53) over HOU (.49)
      • Overall Prediction: MIA over HOU
      • MIA 44 over HOU 26 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Correct @ 73%
  • NYJ @ NE - Close game
    • M1 - NE (.65) over NYJ (.64)
    • M2 - NE (.65) over NYJ (.62)
    • M3 - NE (.70) over NYJ (.65)
      • Overall Prediction: NE over NYJ
      • NE 30 over NYJ 23 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Correct @ 85%
  • CLE @ STL - Close game
    • M1 - CLE (.47) over STL (.39)
    • M2 - CLE (.48) over STL (.37)
    • M3 - CLE (.48) over STL (.39)
      • Overall Prediction: CLE over STL
      • STL 24 over CLE 6 - Prediction Incorrect
      • Crowd Correct @ 78%
  • ATL @ TEN - Easy will for ATL
    • M1 - ATL (.55) over TEN (.45)
    • M2 - ATL (.50) over TEN (.35)
    • M3 - ATL (.54) over TEN (.41)
      • Overall Prediction: ATL over TEN
      • ATL 10 over TEN 7 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Correct @ 97%
  • TB @ WAS - Close game
    • M1 - WAS (.47) over TB (.42)
    • M2 - TB (.46) over WAS (.42)
    • M3 - TB (.46) over WAS (.45)
      • Overall Prediction: TB over WAS
      • WAS 31 over TB 30 - Prediction Incorrect
      • Crowd Correct @ 67%
  • OAK @ SD - Close game
    • M1 - SD (.45) over OAK (.45)
    • M2 - SD (.44) over OAK (.43)
    • M3 - OAK (.48) over SD (.44)
      • Overall Prediction: SD over OAK
      • OAK 37 over SD 29 - Prediction Incorrect
      • Crowd Incorrect @ 81%
  • DAL @ NYG - Close game
    • M1 - NYG (.50) over DAL (.45)
    • M2 - NYG (.39) over DAL (.33)
    • M3 - NYG (.41) over DAL (.47)
      • Overall Prediction: NYG over DAL
      • NYG 27 over DAL 20 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Correct @ 74%
  • PHI @ CAR - Close game
    • M1 - CAR (.60) over PHI (.56)
    • M2 - PHI (.69) over CAR (.57)
    • M3 - PHI (.62) over CAR (.61)
      • Overall Prediction: PHI over CAR
      • CAR 27 over PHI 16 - Prediction Incorrect
      • Crowd Correct @ 82%
  • BAL @ ARI - ???
    • M1 - ARI (.62) over BAL (.46)
    • M2 - ARI (.50) over BAL (.46)
    • M3 - ARI (.57) over BAL (.47)
      • Overall Prediction: ARI over BAL
      • ARI 26 over BAL 18 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Correct @ 95%

Games to watch: NO @ IND, NYJ @ NE, CLE @ STL (Yeah, that's right. The Cleveland game), PHI @ CAR.

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