Thursday, October 29, 2015

WEEK SEVEN NFL RESULTS

Below please find the 2015 week seven NFL results based on the model we built last year. This model uses a learning algorithm fed by data from the last six weeks. To date, success rates this season are as follows: Week 2 - 50%, Week 3 - 62.5%, Week 4 - 60%, Week 5 - 64%, Week 6 - 57% and then this week - 50%.

I did say earlier that wasn't feel very good about the reliability of these predictions, largely due to larger than usual divergence from the crowd's predictions. The crowd faired better this week than the model in getting 10 correct of the 14 for a 71% accuracy rating. No doubt, the crude model from last year has its limitations. Even so, it seems to have done better last year.

Progress continues on our drive analysis network, though preliminary testing on components of the network thus far look promising, it would be premature to say what the final reliability of drive analysis will be. The more I watch these games, especially this year, the more I am convinced that depth charts matter, since injuries play such a major role in game outcomes. If so, we can account for them by adding additional layers to the network in future semesters.

  • SEA @ SF - Easy win for SEA
    • M1 - SEA (.56) over SF (.41)
    • M2 - SEA (.51) over SF (.46)
    • M3 - SEA (.55) over SF (.39)
      • Overall Prediction: SEA over SF
      • SEA 20 over SF 3 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Correct @ 81%
  • BUF @ JAX - ???
    • M1 - BUF (.51) over JAX (.40)
    • M2 - BUF (.44) over JAX (.41)
    • M3 - BUF (.47) over JAX (.40)
      • Overall Prediction: BUF over JAX
      • JAX 34 over BUF 31 - Prediction Incorrect
      • Crowd Incorrect @ 88%
  • MIN @ DET - Close game
    • M1 DET (.58) over MIN (.51)
    • M2 DET (.56) over MIN (.56)
    • M3 MIN (.59) over DET (.58)
      • Overall Prediction: DET over MIN
      • MIN 28 over DET 19 - Prediction Incorrect
      • Crowd Correct @ 67%
  • NO @ IND - Close game
    • M1 - NO (.45) over IND (.45)
    • M2 - NO (.50) over IND (.48)
    • M3 - IND (.48) over NO (.47)
      • Overall Prediction: NO over IND
      • NO 27 over IND 21 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Incorrect @ 79%
  • PIT @ KC - Easy win for PIT
    • M1 - PIT (.58) over KC (.45)
    • M2 - PIT (.60) over KC (.42)
    • M3 - PIT (.59) over KC (.42)
      • Overall Prediction: PIT over KC
      • KC 23 over PIT 13 - Prediction Incorrect
      • Crowd Incorrect @ 86%
  • HOU @ MIA - Close game
    • M1 - MIA (.49) over HOU (.48)
    • M2 - MIA (.58) over HOU (.52)
    • M3 - MIA (.53) over HOU (.49)
      • Overall Prediction: MIA over HOU
      • MIA 44 over HOU 26 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Correct @ 73%
  • NYJ @ NE - Close game
    • M1 - NE (.65) over NYJ (.64)
    • M2 - NE (.65) over NYJ (.62)
    • M3 - NE (.70) over NYJ (.65)
      • Overall Prediction: NE over NYJ
      • NE 30 over NYJ 23 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Correct @ 85%
  • CLE @ STL - Close game
    • M1 - CLE (.47) over STL (.39)
    • M2 - CLE (.48) over STL (.37)
    • M3 - CLE (.48) over STL (.39)
      • Overall Prediction: CLE over STL
      • STL 24 over CLE 6 - Prediction Incorrect
      • Crowd Correct @ 78%
  • ATL @ TEN - Easy will for ATL
    • M1 - ATL (.55) over TEN (.45)
    • M2 - ATL (.50) over TEN (.35)
    • M3 - ATL (.54) over TEN (.41)
      • Overall Prediction: ATL over TEN
      • ATL 10 over TEN 7 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Correct @ 97%
  • TB @ WAS - Close game
    • M1 - WAS (.47) over TB (.42)
    • M2 - TB (.46) over WAS (.42)
    • M3 - TB (.46) over WAS (.45)
      • Overall Prediction: TB over WAS
      • WAS 31 over TB 30 - Prediction Incorrect
      • Crowd Correct @ 67%
  • OAK @ SD - Close game
    • M1 - SD (.45) over OAK (.45)
    • M2 - SD (.44) over OAK (.43)
    • M3 - OAK (.48) over SD (.44)
      • Overall Prediction: SD over OAK
      • OAK 37 over SD 29 - Prediction Incorrect
      • Crowd Incorrect @ 81%
  • DAL @ NYG - Close game
    • M1 - NYG (.50) over DAL (.45)
    • M2 - NYG (.39) over DAL (.33)
    • M3 - NYG (.41) over DAL (.47)
      • Overall Prediction: NYG over DAL
      • NYG 27 over DAL 20 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Correct @ 74%
  • PHI @ CAR - Close game
    • M1 - CAR (.60) over PHI (.56)
    • M2 - PHI (.69) over CAR (.57)
    • M3 - PHI (.62) over CAR (.61)
      • Overall Prediction: PHI over CAR
      • CAR 27 over PHI 16 - Prediction Incorrect
      • Crowd Correct @ 82%
  • BAL @ ARI - ???
    • M1 - ARI (.62) over BAL (.46)
    • M2 - ARI (.50) over BAL (.46)
    • M3 - ARI (.57) over BAL (.47)
      • Overall Prediction: ARI over BAL
      • ARI 26 over BAL 18 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Correct @ 95%

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