Tuesday, October 13, 2015

WEEK FIVE NFL RESULTS

Below please find the 2015 week five NFL results based on the model we built last year. This model uses a learning algorithm fed by data from just the last four weeks. To date, success rates this season and last are as follows: 

This week, the model was 64% correct (9 games correct / 5 games incorrect.) The crowd faired better at 79% correct (11 games correct / 3 games incorrect.)

The one game that the model got correct and the crowd incorrect was PIT 24 over SD 20 on Monday night. The other two misses on the part of the crowd were also missed by the model. These were CHI 18 over KC 17 and CLE 33 over BAL 30.

To help make the details below clear, keep in mind that we have slightly altered the 2014 model in various ways to yield three sets of predictions. Model 1 (M1) is the procedure from last year and is based on normal averaging. M2 is based on moving averages, and M3 is based on weighted percentages (thereby allowing games later in the season to count more than earlier games.)


  • IND @ HOU - close game (Correct)
    • M1 - HOU (.46) over IND (.42) - Incorrect
    • M2 - IND (.48) over HOU (.43) - Correct
    • M3 - IND (.46) over HOU (.45) - Correct
      • Overall Prediction: IND over HOU
      • IND 27 over HOU 20 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Correct @ 69%
  • CHI @ KC - easy win for KC (Incorrect)
    • M1 - KC (.45) over CHI (.32) - Incorrect
    • M2 - KC (.42) over CHI (.35) - Incorrect
    • M3 - KC (.42) over CHI (.32) - Incorrect
      • Overall Prediction: KC over CHI
      • CHI 18 over KC 17 - Prediction incorrect
      • Crowd Incorrect @ 89%
  • SEA @ CIN - fierce game (Correct)
    • M1 CIN (.61) over SEA (.61) - Correct
    • M2 SEA (.64) over CIN (.61) - Incorrect
    • M3 SEA (.65) over CIN (.60) - Incorrect
      • Overall Prediction: SEA over CIN
      • CIN 27 over SEA 24 - Prediction incorrect
      • Crowd Correct @ 65%
  • WAS @ ATL - ???
    • M1 - ATL (.59) over WAS (.50) - Correct
    • M2 - ATL (.63) over WAS (.50) - Correct
    • M3 - ATL (.62) over WAS (.51) - Correct
      • Overall Prediction: ATL over WAS
      • ATL 25 over WAS 19 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Correct @ 96%
  • JAX @ TB - close game (Correct)
    • M1 - JAX (.39) over TB (.38) - Incorrect
    • M2 - JAX (.39) over TB (.37) - Incorrect
    • M3 - JAX (.39) over TB (.39) - Incorrect
      • Overall Prediction: JAX over TB
      • TB 38 over JAX 31 - Prediction Incorrect
      • Crowd Correct @ 55%
  • NO @ PHI - fierce game (Incorrect)
    • M1 - PHI (.47) over NO (.46) - Correct
    • M2 - NO (.50) over PHI (.48) - Incorrect
    • M3 - NO (.49) over PHI (.48) - Incorrect
      • Overall Prediction: NO over PHI
      • PHI 39 over NO 17 - Prediction Incorrect
      • Crowd Correct @ 66%
  • CLE @ BAL - close game (Correct)
    • M1 - BAL (.47) over CLE (.45) - Incorrect
    • M2 - BAL (.49) over CLE (.46) - Incorrect
    • M3 - BAL (.48) over CLE (.47) - Incorrect
      • Overall Prediction: BAL over CLE
      • CLE 33 over BAL 30 - Prediction Incorrect
      • Crowd Incorrect @ 86%
  • STL @ GB - easy win for GB (Correct)
    • M1 - GB (.65) over STL (.42) - Correct
    • M2 - GB (.72) over STL (.44) - Correct
    • M3 - GB (.69) over STL (.42) - Correct
      • Overall Prediction: GB over STL
      • GB 24 over STL 10 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Correct @ 95%
  • BUF @ TEN - close game (Correct)
    • M1 - BUF (.54) over TEN (.52) - Correct
    • M2 - TEN (.52) over BUF (.47) - Incorrect
    • M3 - BUF (.50) over TEN (.47) - Correct
      • Overall Prediction: BUF over TEN
      • BUF 14 over TEN 13 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Correct @ 83%
  • ARI @ DET - easy win for ARI (Correct)
    • M1 - ARI (.66) over DET (.40) - Correct
    • M2 - ARI (.62) over DET (.40) - Correct
    • M3 - ARI (.65) over DET (.39) - Correct
      • Overall Prediction: ARI over DET
      • ARI 42 over DET 17 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Correct @ 87%
  • NE @ DAL - easy win for NE (Correct)
    • M1 - NE (.63) over DAL (.52) - Correct
    • M2 - NE (.66) over DAL (.49) - Correct
    • M3 - NE (.64) over DAL (.50) - Correct
      • Overall Prediction: NE over DAL
      • NE 30 over DAL 6 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Correct @ 92%
  • DEN @ OAK - easy win for DEN (Incorrect)
    • M1 - DEN (.59) over OAK (.47) - Correct
    • M2 - DEN (.58) over OAK (.48) - Correct
    • M3 - DEN (.58) over OAK (.50) - Correct
      • Overall Prediction: DEN over OAK
      • DEN 16 over OAK 10 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Correct @ 88%
  • SF @ NYG - easy win for NYG (Incorrect)
    • M1 - NYG (.56) over SF (.36) - Correct
    • M2 - NYG (.62) over SF (.25) - Correct
    • M3 - NYG (.60) over SF (.24) - Correct
      • Overall Prediction: NYG over SF
      • NYG 30 over SF 27 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Correct @ 87%
  • PIT @ SD - ???
    • M1 - PIT (.57) over SD (.46) - Correct
    • M2 - PIT (.54) over SD (.47) - Correct
    • M3 - PIT (.57) over SD (.45) - Correct
      • Overall Prediction: PIT over SD
      • PIT 24 over SD 20 - Prediction Correct
      • Crowd Incorrect @ 61%

We're setting up for week six. If last year is any indication of the strength of past data in determining the future within our model, we should see a big jump. I'm curious to see if this will indeed be the case.

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