Thursday, October 29, 2015

WEEK EIGHT NFL PREDICTIONS

Below please find the 2015 week eight NFL predictions based on the model we built last year. This model uses a learning algorithm fed by data from the last seven weeks. To date, success rates this season are as follows: Week 2, 50%: Week 3, 62.5%: Week 4, 60%: Week 5, 64%; Week 6, 57%; Week 7, 50%.

We have slightly altered the 2014 model in various ways to yield three sets of predictions. This week we are taking the average of all three to make predictions. Model 1 (M1) is the precise procedure from last year and is based on normal averaging. So far, this has been the most accurate model. M2 is based on moving averages, and M3 is based on weighted percentages (thereby allowing games later in the season to count more than earlier games.)

Note that this week the model agreed with the crowd in 12 of the 14 games as opposed to 9 of the 14 from last week. The two games of contention are the SD @ BAL and NYG @ NO games, both of which the model predicts to be very close.

So here goes - (The % indicated after each game represents the crowd-sourced prediction from nfl.com as of this afternoon. The two digit decimal numbers following team names should be interpreted relative to each other for comparison to determine, in part, how close the game will be.):

  • MIA @ NE
    • NE (.63) over MIA (.55) - Easy win for NE
    • NE 36 over MIA 7 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 89%
  • DET @ KC
    • KC (.51) over DET (.43) - Close game
    • KC 45 over DET 10 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 71%
  • TB @ ATL
    • ATL (.57) over TB (.45) - Easy win for ATL
    • TB 23 over ATL 20 - Prediction Incorrect by 4 Points
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 96%
  • ARI @ CLE
    • ARI (.60) over CLE (.41) - Easy win for ARI
    • ARI 34 over CLE 20 - Prediction correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 96%
  • SF @ STL
    • STL (.51) over SF (.35) - Easy win for STL
    • STL 27 over SF 6 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 90%
  • NYG @ NO
    • NYG (.52) over NO (.51) - Very close game
    • NO 52 over NYG 49 - Prediction Incorrect  by 4 Points
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 59%
  • MIN @ CHI
    • MIN (.56) over CHI (.39) - Easy win for MIN
    • MIN 23 over CHI 20 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 82%
  • SD @ BAL
    • BAL (.47) over SD (.46) - Very close game
    • BAL 29 over SD 26 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 59%
  • CIN @ PIT
    • CIN (.59) over PIT (.54) - Close game
    • CIN 16 over PIT 10 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 68%
  • TEN @ HOU
    • HOU (.47) over TEN (.41) - Close game
    • HOU 20 over TEN 6 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 71%
  • NYJ @ OAK
    • NYJ (.56) over OAK (.48) - Easy win for NYJ
    • OAK 34 over NYJ 20 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 72%
  • SEA @ DAL
    • SEA (.66) over DAL (.41) - Easy win for SEA
    • SEA 13 over DAL 12 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 84%
  • GB @ DEN
    • GB (.65) over DEN (.57) - Interesting game
    • DEN 29 over GB 10 - Prediction Incorrect
    • Crowd Incorrect @ 75%
  • IND @ CAR
    • CAR (.60) over IND (.48) - Easy win for CAR
    • CAR 29 over IND 26 - Prediction Correct
    • Crowd Correct @ 88%

Games to watch: NYG @ NO, SD @ BAL, and GB @ DEN.

No comments:

Post a Comment