Model 1 (M1) is the procedure from last year and is based on normal averaging. So far, this has been the most accurate model. M2 is based on moving averages, and M3 is based on weighted percentages (thereby allowing games later in the season to count more than earlier games.)
NE | 2.01 |
GB | 1.95 |
NYJ | 1.91 |
PHI | 1.87 |
CIN | 1.78 |
CAR | 1.78 |
PIT | 1.77 |
DEN | 1.72 |
ARI | 1.69 |
MIN | 1.66 |
SEA | 1.62 |
MIA | 1.61 |
ATL | 1.59 |
HOU | 1.48 |
CLE | 1.43 |
NO | 1.43 |
BUF | 1.41 |
IND | 1.41 |
BAL | 1.40 |
NYG | 1.37 |
OAK | 1.36 |
TB | 1.34 |
SD | 1.34 |
WAS | 1.34 |
DET | 1.31 |
KC | 1.29 |
SF | 1.26 |
TEN | 1.22 |
JAX | 1.21 |
DAL | 1.18 |
CHI | 1.17 |
STL | 1.15 |
All in all, they look pretty intuitive to me, though prior to the season I would have guessed that SEA, IND and DAL would be higher.
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