Tuesday, September 22, 2015

WEEK TWO NFL RESULTS

Here are the prediction results for week two of the regular season NFL games using the method we employed last year:
  • DEN over KC - 
    • Model: CorrectCrowd: Incorrect
  • CAR over HOU - 
    • Model: Correct - Crowd: Correct
  • SF over PIT - 
    • Model: Incorrect - Crowd: Correct
  • NO over TB - 
    • Model: Incorrect - Crowd: Incorrect
  • DET over MN - 
    • Model: Incorrect - Crowd: Incorrect
  • ARI over CHI - 
    • Model: Correct - Crowd: Correct
  • BUF over NE - 
    • Model: Incorrect - Crowd: Correct
  • CIN over SD - 
    • Model: Correct - Crowd: Correct
  • TEN over CLE - 
    • Model: Incorrect - Crowd: Incorrect
  • ATL over NYG - 
    • Model: Correct - Crowd: Correct
  • STL over WAS - 
    • Model: Incorrect - Crowd: Incorrect
  • MIA over JAX - 
    • Model: Incorrect - Crowd: Incorrect
  • BAL over OAK - 
    • Model: Incorrect - Crowd: Incorrect
  • DAL over PHI - 
    • Model: Correct - Crowd: Incorrect
  • GB over SEA - 
    • Model: Correct - Crowd: Correct
  • NYJ over IN - 
    • Model: Correct - Crowd: Incorrect

The model was correct on 50% of the games. Since the model uses a learning algorithm, I was expecting it to be in the 30th percentile somewhere. So, it outperformed my expectations, but at the cost of the loss of the Colts, which is never good. (Data for these predictions was based on one week only.)

The crowd (based on the NFL Weekly Pick'em as of last Thursday afternoon) was correct on 44% of the games. So, the model beat the crowd, but this is only an incidental goal. Ideally, at least one of our models will accord with the predictions of the crowd 100% of the time. I will explain why this matters in my upcoming post, Predicting the Winners vs. Predicting the Crowd. During this particular week, the model accorded with the crowd 69% of the time. In only 31% of the cases were the model and crowd both correct. In 38% of the cases, they were both incorrect. Let's see how these numbers change over the next several weeks. If last year is any indication, they should improve.

No comments:

Post a Comment