Thursday, September 24, 2015

WEEK THREE NFL PREDICTIONS

Below please find the 2015 week three NFL predictions based on the model we built last year. This model uses a learning algorithm fed by data from just the last two weeks. So, there no expectation of great success just yet. Last week, the model was 50% correct. Let's see if this week can surpass that.

So here goes - (The % indicated after each game represents the crowd-sourced prediction from nfl.com as of this afternoon):
  • WAS over NYG - 26% agreement
  • DAL over ATL - 27% agreement
  • TEN over IN - 26% agreement
  • CLE over OAK - 57% agreement
  • CIN over BAL - 62% agreement
  • NE over JAX - 98% agreement
  • CAR over NO - 84% agreement
  • NYJ over PHI - 71% agreement
  • HOU over TB (but barely) - 68% agreement
  • SD over MIN - 49% agreement
  • PIT over STL - 82% agreement
  • ARI over SF - 89% agreement
  • BUF over MIA (but barely) - 68% agreement
  • SEA over CHI - 96% agreement
  • DEN over DET - 87% agreement
  • GB over KC - 90% agreement
Games to watch: TB @ HOU and BUF @ MIA.

My own intuitions disagree with the IN @ TEN game, not merely because I am a Colts fan. Even though the numbers don't suggest so, I would personally expect to see a good game in KC @ GB.

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